Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 82026.454007 86592.402419 91156.985167 96059.338502 101172.142474 106343.885241 111967.339906
2025-01-19 73915.248866 80861.733567 88001.597015 95878.513451 104314.456339 113067.742963 122826.513346
2025-01-26 69539.141065 78225.424521 87348.224848 97622.628045 108850.263937 120725.333464 134212.924270
2025-02-02 66253.090095 76287.523835 87017.139049 99308.597581 112963.546810 127631.576979 144542.228978
2025-02-09 63023.614067 74084.998754 86101.638768 100074.193229 115820.620928 132963.164111 152981.499408
2025-02-16 59715.576746 71544.459275 84582.851692 99950.524927 117494.846675 136825.648812 159659.091347
2025-02-23 57218.538465 69753.070526 83752.882125 100457.198810 119750.463279 141237.659579 166877.457358
2025-03-02 54746.731665 67845.179798 82658.144434 100536.996784 121411.904105 144893.213820 173176.642287
2025-03-09 53196.831149 66920.544656 82617.493840 101761.404697 124332.632309 149949.621275 181064.940018
2025-03-16 50823.477865 64907.043292 81199.760367 101277.654322 125180.728634 152549.703139 186068.316094
2025-03-23 49742.911378 64386.130568 81498.084861 102779.831647 128333.051439 157818.355770 194189.522456
2025-03-30 48436.486027 63526.981224 81336.617143 103684.853329 130741.498575 162195.549222 201264.982705
2025-04-06 46710.779291 62116.767444 80487.576383 103755.550236 132168.434389 165454.952207 207096.527587
2025-04-13 44970.003642 60628.335610 79491.960568 103604.204248 133296.895290 168345.969452 212498.182695
2025-04-20 44341.050073 60505.134095 80153.185068 105469.713788 136874.118560 174186.310347 221471.964496
2025-04-27 43727.083773 60368.331626 80772.275160 107265.991256 140361.996843 179930.145949 230362.209041
2025-05-04 42693.331377 59651.283589 80628.483484 108081.096697 142620.059637 184174.941373 237445.621078
2025-05-11 41284.242807 58399.063931 79763.985481 107949.604217 143669.451911 186922.047574 242694.457859
2025-05-18 40252.432473 57604.200083 79450.671362 108488.740556 145538.701608 190670.107488 249181.075597
2025-05-25 39075.889906 56579.028426 78806.272714 108573.649521 146811.721333 193667.746902 254742.201067
2025-06-01 38480.166497 56306.230705 79118.788935 109876.309198 149624.994317 198589.734012 262717.781480
2025-06-08 37153.148899 55008.110186 78054.989049 109361.665430 150090.885375 200556.717168 266998.784748
2025-06-15 36752.918227 54953.759202 78616.265180 110959.681101 153271.036356 205950.364747 275607.747601